It's a possible NFC championship game preview on Monday night, but if you look at both of these teams (who met in the playoffs last season), the first half of the 2025 campaign has been underwhelming for each.
The Eagles have the 6-2 record to back up preseason expectations, but, for lack of a better summary, the vibes hadn't been quite right in Philadelphia leading up to last week's bye. Meanwhile, the Packersfeellike they're a contender, but a 5-2-1 record features some thoroughly head-scratching performances. The most recent came just last week as they were victims of arguably the biggest upset of the season, losing at home to the Panthers as 13.5-point favorites.
With the Eagles and Packers marching alongside one another in the betting market's power ratings for most of the season, a shift in the line over the weekend might have to do with some personnel moves on each side.
Odds courtesy ofBetMGM.
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-1, 45.5)
An opening line of Packers -2.5 implied that oddsmakers expected bettors to be of the opinion that Green Bay is just shy of one point better than Philadelphia (with a point-and-a-half or more for home-field advantage) — and from last Sunday to Friday, that was true.
The betting market can be a funny thing, as nothing tangible happened over the weekend to trigger bettors' interest in the Eagles. However, enough respected money has been bet on Philadelphia to pull this game down to a pick'em at some books.
Maybe it was as simple as sharp money getting around to this game, because, if you really think about each team — and the expectation for where, within their range, they might perform on Monday night — there's a pretty salient argument for a high-end performance from the Eagles, and a low-end one for the Packers.
The Eagles are coming off a bye week that marks the literal midway-point of the season. Regardless of Philly's record to this point, the latter half is all that matters to that organization. To wit, GM Howie Roseman made a handful of trade deadline deals to address the Eagles' issues in pass-rusher depth and at third (and fourth) cornerback. He might have literally too many players on Monday if Nolan Smith returns to the lineup as well.
One of the Eagles' worst games of the season — a Week 6 loss at the Giants — came when CB Quinyon Mitchell (who's played every snap during non-garbage time) was only on the field for 19 plays, and DT Jalen Carter was out. A team that was rated like the defending Super Bowl champions that they are hasn't had a roster on that level at any point this season.
Week 1: Carter was ejected before the first play
Week 2: Dallas Goedert was out
Week 3: Mostly healthy (beat the Rams)
Week 4: Nolan Smith and Adoree Jackson out
Week 5: Smith and Jackson out
Week 6: Landon Dickerson, Carter, Smith out
Week 7: Nolan Smith and Za'Darius Smith out
Week 8: A.J. Brown, Jackson, Smith and Smith out
The Packers haven't been blessed with maximum health, losing WR Jayden Reed in Week 2, but they knew WR Christian Watson wouldn't return until midway through the season. Defensively, missing DT Devonte Wyatt for a couple games was more than made up for by the bonus addition of DE Micah Parsons just before the season, which sent the Packers' power rating in the market through the roof. Since winning and covering twice in five days to start the season, the Packers have just one point spread cover since, which required a nine-point halftime comeback in Pittsburgh.
Now the injuries are piling up in Green Bay, with burgeoning star TE Tucker Kraft out for the season, and right tackle Zach Tom questionable, the Packers may have to adapt on the fly on Monday night. That's something the Eagles have done regularly this season, only to finally find enough stability to warrant the line move.
Pick: Eagles +1
Player props
Jalen Hurts: Over 194.5 passing yards (-115)
No. 1 cornerback Kaisean Nixon has been disappointing in coverage, and Carrington Valentine has been in and out of the lineup on a game-to-game basis. Neither player is a particularly dissuasive matchup against Brown or DeVonta Smith, and no defense has allowed more pass receptions to opposing tight ends (7.0 per game) than the Packers. Hurts can find Goedert to extend drives while also challenging Green Bay's secondary down the field, similar to last season's opener when he threw for 278 yards in a Week 1 shootout. The Packers should force the Eagles to open the playbook, and Hurts should able to execute for big plays.
RB Josh Jacobs under 69.5 rushing yards (-118)
While he doesn't need to get to 90 yards to clear his rushing total, it may be telling that Jacobs has hit that number just once this season (against the porous Bengals defense), after doing so five times last season.
Between the drift toward a more pass-heavy approach for the Packers' offense with their fleet of receiving options, and a snap-split that's become more 60-40 between he and the other Green Bay tailbacks, Jacobs hasn't had 20 carries in a game since their Week 5 bye after twice getting that type of workload beforehand.
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When the Eagles are at their best (and healthiest), their run defense puts teams in passing situations and their offense holds the ball long enough to create impatience when the opponent finally gets the ball back. If our assumption is a high-end effort from the Eagles in prime time, that should translate into relatively limited opportunity for Jacobs, who hasn't broken a run for more than 19 yards all season.
WR Romeo Doubs over 4.5 receptions (-105)
What is Jordan Love going to do without Tucker Kraft — his most reliable pass-catcher (32 receptions on 44 targets)? Probably look more to another big-bodied option, and his second-most reliable receiver (34 receptions on 52 targets).
Partially because of Kraft's exit, and partly due to a competitive game-script, Love targeted Doubs 10 times last week, the fourth time in the last five games that Doubs had at least eight balls thrown his way.
With enough receivers available to allow Doubs to move around the formation, the Packers should create enough good matchups for Love to look his way the usual amount of times, which should translate to five or more catches.
Anytime touchdown
Jalen Hurts: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+140)
Rather than guess who gets the ball thrown to them or pay the vig on either Saquon Barkley or Hurts to run one in, let's take the plus-money on Hurts to throw two touchdowns.
After starting the season without a passing touchdown, perhaps teams have loaded up the box in the red zone, and/or dared Hurts to beat them from further out. In either case, he's done it, with two-plus touchdown passes in five of his last six games, and seven total in the two games heading into the Eagles' bye week.
Christian Watson (+300)
After a 10% bump in snaps played from the first game of his season in Week 8 to the next one in Week 9, Watson should find himself as the No. 2 receiver, regardless of how many are available at the position to play.
The Packers' best deep threat, Watson has already caught a 33-yard pass and a 52-yarder, but neither found the end zone. The Eagles' safeties can be taken advantage of over the top, and Watson's size makes him a good red zone target — as evidenced by his 14 touchdowns in 38 career games before this season.
Luke Musgrave (+333)/John FitzPatrick (+850)
Just because Kraft (scorer of six touchdowns this season) is out doesn't mean Matt LaFleur threw out the "tight end chapter" of the playbook. Musgrave was drafted ahead of Kraft in 2023, and, until he suffered injuries in his rookie season that put Kraft into the spotlight, Musgrave was actually the more highly-regarded player and should be able to do a reasonable impression of Kraft within the Packers' offense.
Meanwhile, John FitzPatrick shifts one spot forward to the No. 2 tight end role. Of the two, he is actually the one with a touchdown already. Splitting a unit across the two leftover Green Bay tight ends is a good way to potentially capitalize on the Packers' coping without Kraft.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor,Matt Russell, atTHE WINDOW.
It's a possible NFC championship game preview on Monday night, but if you look at both of these teams (who met in th...
