Matt Jacob Contributing writer Thu, November 5, 2026 at 3:36 PM UTC · 10 min read About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement The most intriguing game on the NFL's Week 9 slate? Without question, it's the one anchoring the 15-game slate: a Monday Night Football showdown between the Bills and Vikings in Minnesota.
Not because the two teams are both 6-1 (tied with San Francisco for the best record in the league). And not because each franchise is 0-4 in Super Bowls. Rather, this interconference battle pits the NFL's highest-scoring offense (Buffalo) against the stingiest defense (Minnesota).
Flip the field, and the contrasting styles are still present: Only six teams are scoring fewer points per game than the Vikings, and only nine squads are giving up more points than the Bills.
So of course I'm capping my Week 9 NFL betting trends report with a comprehensive Bills-Vikings breakdown. That's preceded by four of the week's other top matchups, including a pair of Super Bowl rematches.
• The Bengals took the field in Week 8 as the largest favorite of the NFL season to date, but never came close to covering the 13.5-point spread in a 43-36 overtime victory over visiting Tennessee.
Cincinnati has won three in a row, topping 30 points in each contest. It's the team's longest positive run since closing out 2024 on a five-game winning streak.
However, since opening the season with back-to-back spread covers, the Bengals have gone 1-3-1 ATS. One positive NFL betting trend for Joe Burrow and Co.: They've won three of their first four road games (2-1-1 ATS).
• Atlanta didn't allow a single completed pass last week against the Buccaneers, but still got blitzed 16-0 as a 2-point road underdog in soggy Tampa Bay.
The Falcons are 1-3 SU/ATS in their last four games. The lone victory: a Week 7 upset of previously undefeated San Francisco at home. That also stands as the team's only SU/ATS triumph in four home games.
• Atlanta is 0-2 SU/ATS against the AFC North this season, losing 20-13 at Pittsburgh as a 6.5-point underdog in Week 1 and 30-23 to Baltimore as a 3-point home favorite in Week 5.
Conversely, the Bengals have taken down the only NFC opponent they have faced (a season-opening 33-27 victory over Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point home favorite).
In fact, Cincinnati has won and covered five straight games against the NFC South dating to 2022, with each victory by at least four points.
• The over is 5-2 in Bengals games this season (3-1 on the road). What's more, each of their last nine games against an NFC South squad have topped the total.
On the other hand, Atlanta has followed a 4-0 over stretch with consecutive unders. The last time three straight Falcons games fell short of the total: Weeks 1-3 last season.
• Denver rallied from an 11-point fourth-quarter deficit Sunday, upending the Chiefs 28-24 as a 1-point home underdog.
Since an ugly 31-10 season-opening loss at Kansas City, the Broncos are 6-1 SU and ATS, winning and covering their last four in a row.
Despite this hot run, Denver enters Week 9 with a scant plus-7 point differential.
• Carolina has lost back-to-back games for the first time this season, following a 43-13 Week 7 home loss to Tampa Bay with a 27-19 defeat at Green Bay on Thursday Night Football.
The Panthers have averaged 30.3 points in their three victories (tallying at least 25 in all three) and just 16.3 PPG in their last three losses (falling short of 20 points in each).
• Here's a stunning NFL betting trend that speaks to the Broncos' grit: Since Week 5 of last season, they have won 15 consecutive regular season games decided by eight points or fewer.
Although Denver is just 9-6 ATS in those 15 contests, it has covered the spread in each of its five one-score victories this season. Also, the Broncos are 5-0 SU and ATS as a favorite in 2026.
• Carolina failed to deliver for bettors against both the Buccaneers and Packers.
It's the first time the Panthers have suffered consecutive point-spread setbacks since an 0-5 SU/ATS slump from Weeks 5-8 in 2024 — a stretch of 34 contests (one playoff game included).
Over those 34 games, Carolina is 11-3 ATS as a home underdog, with eight outright upsets (1-1 SU/ATS in that role this season).
• Broncos QB Bo Nix threw one interception in each of his team's first three contests. He has not been picked off in five games since (157 pass attempts).
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This week, Nix faces a defense that has only intercepted four passes, including just one since Week 3.
• The over has cashed in all three Panthers home games in 2026. Combined points: 96, 58 and 56.
Conversely, since the start of 2025, eight of the Broncos' 11 games away from the Mile High City — including three of four this year — have come up short of the total. Combined points in their four road games this year: 41, 38, 40 and 46 (over).
• The Packers rebounded from a last-second 20-17 Week 7 loss at Detroit as a 4.5-point underdog with last week's 27-19 Thursday night win over Carolina as a 3.5-point home favorite.
Not only has Green Bay won four of its last five, but it has followed an 0-3 ATS start to the season with a 5-0 ATS uptick. It's the team's longest stretch of profitability since going 8-0-1 ATS from Weeks 2-10 in 2021.
• New England traveled to Miami in Week 8 as a 7-point favorite but had to rally from a 10-point halftime deficit to secure a 24-19 victory. It was the Patriots' third straight non-cover after a 4-1 ATS start.
• The Packers came through for bettors in their last two road trips, covering as a favorite at Tampa Bay in Week 4 and as an underdog at Detroit in Week 7.
GREEN BAY, WI - OCTOBER 29: Jordan Love #10 of the Green Bay Packers throws the ball during an NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers at Lambeau Field on October 29, 2026 in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
Prior to that, though, Green Bay had been in a 2-10-1 ATS funk away from Lambeau Field (including a wild-card game at Chicago last year).
• New England has successfully defended its home turf this year, toppling the Steelers, Raiders and Jets by the combined score of 91-39.
Had New York not scored a late spread-covering touchdown in a 26-19 Week 6 loss as a 7.5-point underdog, the Patriots would be on a 6-0 ATS run in Foxborough.
As it is, since Week 4 of last season (including the playoffs), New England is 11-1 SU/9-3 ATS at home and 16-1 SU/12-5 ATS as a favorite.
• During its current 4-1 SU run, Green Bay's defense is allowing just 14.6 PPG. That explains why the Packers' last five games have dipped under the total.
Overall, five of Green Bay's eight contests — including the last three on the road — have ended with fewer than 39 combined points.
On the complete opposite end of the NFL betting trends spectrum, the Patriots are in the midst of a 5-0 over stretch after their first three games stayed low. Total points scored in New England's last five: 55, 62, 45, 54 and 43.
• Baker Mayfield threw just three passes last week, didn't complete any of them and still Tampa Bay cruised to a 16-0 victory over the Falcons as a 2-point home chalk.
Since a disastrous 0-4 SU and ATS start to 2026, the Bucs have won and covered three of their last four (including two in a row). In fact, the 3-1 ATS run comes on the heels of an 0-13 ATS drought – the longest losing stretch against the number in modern NFL history.
Also worth noting: Tampa has played 31 games since its last three-game ATS winning streak.
• Chicago traveled to Seattle on Monday night as a 3.5-point underdog and manhandled the defending Super Bowl champs, rolling 34-17.
The Bears are riding a three-game SU and ATS winning streak, and their 6-2 ATS mark is tied with Denver, Pittsburgh and Las Vegas for tops in the NFL.
• Not only is Chicago tied for the best point spread record through eight weeks, but it has been the NFL's best bet for nearly two calendar years.
Since Week 17 of 2025 and including two playoff games last season, the Bears are on ATS runs of 21-7-1 overall, 11-4 at home and 10-5 as a favorite.
That said, there is an NFL betting trend working against Chicago this week: Favorites of six points or more are 26-11 between the lines this season but just 10-24-3 ATS.
• The Bears' last three games hurdled the total after the previous four stayed low. It's Chicago's longest streak of overs since its first five games of 2023 eclipsed the total.
Furthermore, the under is 8-2-1 in the last 11 games at Soldier Field. Only three of those featured more than 45 combined points.
The under is also 4-2 in the Bucs' last six, with only one of those contests — a 43-13 rout of Carolina in Week 7 — ending with more than 45 total points.
• Only three franchises enter Week 9 with just one loss, and two of them will square off Monday night in Minnesota.
Buffalo has rebounded from its lone setback — a 29-26 upset loss to New England in Week 4 — with three straight victories (2-1 ATS). The latest was Sunday's 36-10 shellacking of banged-up Baltimore as a 3-point home favorite.
Meanwhile, the Vikings' 11-game winning streak ended in Week 8 with a 19-15 loss at Detroit as a 3.5-point underdog. Minnesota started its heater 7-0-1 ATS, but is just 1-3 ATS since.
• The Bills are unbeaten in three road games this year (2-1 ATS), and they're 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS as a favorite.
Additionally, since the 2022 season kicked off, Buffalo is 14-4 SU/13-4-1 ATS when laying fewer than four points in the regular season. That includes 11-3 SU/10-3-1 ATS as a road favorite of less than four points.
• Minnesota has covered in just four of its last 11 home games, going 1-3 SU and ATS as a home underdog.
The Vikings also have cashed only five times in their last dozen outings as an underdog, regardless of venue. The winner covered the spread in each game.
• The Vikings' 2026 opener — a 39-22 rout of Green Bay — easily topped the total. They have since stayed under in six straight games, none of which even reached 40 combined points.
In fact, in 10 games dating to Week 16 of last year, division rivals Green Bay (22) and Detroit (19) are the only teams to score more than 16 points against a Minnesota stop unit yielding a league-low 13.3 PPG.
• Buffalo is averaging 33.3 PPG, which is nearly four points more than the NFL's second-most prolific offense (Cincinnati at 29.4 PPG).
So, it's no surprise that five of Buffalo's seven games have jumped the total. Go back to last season, and the Bills are on a 9-3 over surge, including 5-0 on the road. Those five road games featured 66, 43, 68, 71 and 63 total points.
Source: Sports
