Why recruiting rankings mean nothing. Just ask the No. 2,535 player who went No. 1

Recruiting rankings are what they are. They're fun for fans to look at, but in the end, you'll see just as many top 100 kids miss as you'll see top 500 kids hit. I'd call it an inexact science, but there's no science involved. It's educated guesswork.

For instance, this year's No. 1 pick inThursday's NFL Draftwas ranked the No. 2,535-best player in his high school class. There were 190 quarterbacks inFernando Mendoza's class ranked above him.

Now, did anyone foresee this skinny kid, who was headed to Yale before Cal swooped in, tobecome a Heisman Trophy winnerand lead perennial loserIndiana to a national championship? Of course not. But it's a reminder recruiting rankings mean squat. But we still love them.

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Analysis for every pick:2026 NFL Draft Round 1 grades

The NFL Draft regularly produces its most memorable moments off the stage, when selections end with a handshake or embrace from the commissioner.

See the moments when draft night emotions peak as Roger Goodell greets players hearing their names called.

Above, Texas Tech Red Raiders linebacker David Bailey embraces NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after he is selected by the New York Jets as the number two pick during the 2026 NFL Draft at Acrisure Stadium.

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Roger Goodell shares hugs with players on the NFL draft stage

The NFL Draftregularly produces its most memorable moments off the stage, when selections end with a handshake or embrace from the commissioner.See the moments when draft night emotions peak as Roger Goodell greets players hearing their names called.Above, Texas Tech Red Raiders linebacker David Bailey embraces NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after he is selected by the New York Jets as the number two pick during the 2026 NFL Draft at Acrisure Stadium.

USA TODAY Sports broke down how 2026 first round picks were ranked coming out of high school, which includes Max Iheanachor, who went No. 21 and doesn't have a high school recruiting profile.

The rankers got some right. Of the 32 first-round picks, 15 were ranked within the top 100 of their graduating class. But nearly as many (12) were ranked outside the top 500. Of those 12, eight were outside the top 900.

Here's a look at where they ranked as prospects using247SportsComposite rankings.

1. Las Vegas Raiders: QB Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)

   • 2-stars, No. 2,535 in nation, No. 311 in Florida, No. 191 QB

2. N.Y. Jets: LB David Bailey (Texas Tech)

   • 4-stars, No. 66 in nation, No. 5 in California, No. 7 EDGE

3. Arizona Cardinals: RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)

   • 4-stars, No. 80 in nation, No. 2 in Missouri, No. 6 RB

4. Tennessee Titans: WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)

   • 4-stars, No. 60 in nation, No. 13 in Florida, No. 9 WR

5. N.Y. Giants: LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State)

   • 4-stars, No. 212 in nation, No. 5 in Ohio, No. 22 LB

6. Kansas City Chiefs: CB Mansoor Delane (LSU)

   • 3-stars, No. 651 in nation, No. 15 in Maryland, No. 59 CB

7. Washington Commanders: LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)

   • 5-stars, No. 12 in nation, No. 2 in Ohio, No. 1 S

8. New Orleans Saints: WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)

   • 3-stars, No. 920 in nation, No. 132 in Texas, No. 131 WR

9. Cleveland Browns: OT Spencer Fano (Utah)

   • 4-stars, No. 95 in nation, No. 1 in Utah, No. 9 OT

10. N.Y. Giants: OT Francis Mauigoa (Miami)

    • 5-stars, No. 10 in nation, No. 2 in Florida, No. 2 OT

11. Dallas Cowboys: S Caleb Downs (Ohio State)

    • 5-stars, No. 6 in nation, No. 1 in Georgia, No. 1 S

12. Miami Dolphins: OT Kadyn Proctor (Alabama)

    • 5-stars, No. 9 in nation, No. 1 in Iowa, No. 1 OT

13. L.A. Rams: QB Ty Simpson (Alabama)

    • 5-stars, No. 26 in nation, No. 2 in Tennessee, No. 3 QB

14. Baltimore Ravens: OG Olaivavega Ioane (Penn State)

    • 3-stars, No. 574 in nation, No. 9 in Washington, No. 26 IOL

15. Tampa Bay Bucs: DE Rueben Bain Jr. (Miami)

    • 4-stars, No. 64 in nation, No. 15 in Florida, No. 11 EDGE

16. N.Y. Jets: TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)

    • 4-stars, No. 116 in nation, No. 1 in Idaho, No. 4 ATH

17. Detroit Lions: OT Blake Miller (Clemson)

    • 4-stars, No. 208 in nation, No. 9 in Ohio, No. 16 OT

18. Minnesota Vikings: DT Caleb Banks (Florida)

    • 3-stars, No. 969 in nation, No. 26 in Michigan, No. 117 DL

19. Carolina Panthers: OT Monroe Freeling (Georgia)

    • 5-stars, No. 33 in nation, No. 1 in South Carolina, No. 5 OT

20. Philadelphia Eagles: WR Makai Lemon (USC)

    • 4-stars, No. 44 in nation, No. 4 in California, No. 7 WR

21. Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Max Iheanachor (Arizona State)

    • 3-stars, No. 30 in nation, No. 8 in California, No. 7 OT (JUCO rankings)

22. L.A. Chargers: DE Akheem Mesidor (Miami)

    • 3-stars, No. 636 in nation, No. 85 in Florida, No. 28 SDE

23. Dallas Cowboys: DE Malachi Lawrence (UCF)

    • 3-stars, No. 1,157 in nation, No. 11 in Kentucky, No. 137 DL

24. Cleveland Browns: WR KC Concepcion (Texas A&M)

    • 3-stars, No. 568 in nation, No. 21 in North Carolina, No. 82 WR

25. Chicago Bears: S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon)

    • 3-stars, No. 990 in nation, No. 14 in Indiana, No. 85 S

26. Houston Texas: OG Keylan Rutledge (Georgia Tech)

    • 3-stars, No. 1,753 in nation, No. 150 in Georgia, No. 176 OT

27. Miami Dolphins: CB Chris Johnson (San Diego State)

    • 3-stars, No. 1,376 in nation, No. 104 in California, No. 127 CB

28. New England Patriots: OT Caleb Lomu (Utah)

    • 4-stars, No. 119 in nation, No. 2 in Arizona, No. 13 OT

29. Kansas City Chiefs: DT Peter Woods (Clemson)

    • 5-stars, No. 34 in nation, No. 3 in Alabama, No. 3 DL

30. N.Y. Jets: WR Omar Cooper Jr. (Indiana)

    • 4-stars, No. 299 in nation, No. 9 in Indiana, No. 43 WR

31. Tennessee Titans: DE Keldric Faulk (Auburn)

    • 4-stars, No. 75 in nation, No. 9 in Alabama, No. 10 DL

32. Seattle Seahawks: RB Jadarian Price (Notre Dame)

    • 4-stars, No. 201 in nation, No. 32 in Texas, No. 17 RB

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Recruiting rankings for 2026 NFL Draft first round picks: The misses, hits