This isn't quarterback rocket science, or a gut feeling. It couldn't be more clear and concise.
The one-year wonders at the quarterback position don't work in theNFL.
Yet there they are, the talking heads all over the sport, falling for it again withTy Simpson. The formerAlabamaquarterback showed up last week at the league'sannual NFL Scouting Combine— with all of 15 career starts in his pocket — and had an impressive throwing session for the assembled scouts and team personnel.
Throwing session.
Suddenly,he's a Top 15 pick. Even ESPN's Dan Orlovsky — as smart and measured analyst as there is — declared Simpson's tape "from his first eight games" of the 2025 season is better than projected No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza.
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Has the entire NFL scouting world gone mad? This isn't that difficult to process, everyone.
Anthony Richardsonstarted one season at Florida. Trey Lance started one season atNorth Dakota State.
Kyler Murray(Oklahoma), Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State) and Mac Jones (Alabama) started one season in college, too. All flamed out.
Meanwhile, I give you (since the 2018 draft) these multiple-season college starters who are all ascending in their careers: two MVPs (Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen), two Super Bowl champions (Jalen Hurts, Sam Darnold), and eight who have led teams to the playoffs (Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams, CJ Stroud, Bryce Young, Bo Nix).
Obviously there are multiple-season college starters who don't pan out, but the odds of success are much higher for a player with elite skills who has spent extended time leading a team, managing games and experiencing every possible win-lose scenario on the grass.
Not a throwing session.
The last time we saw Simpson on the field at Alabama, he and the Tide were gettingclobbered by Indianain the Rose Bowl — where Simpson completed 12 passes for 67 yards before getting knocked out of a 38-3 loss.
It's almost as if these NFL guys, whose very livelihood depends on getting it right more than getting it wrong, never learn.
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Simpson is a talented player. He has a live arm, and is sneaky athletic. He's accurate, and he has played well at times in big games.
But it's hard to fathom a position that demands as many game repetitions as possible to develop and reach potential, could have an obvious red flag so flippantly ignored by the best of the best in the sport.
It's the quarterback obsession. The game — no matter the level — revolves around the play of the quarterback.
The better he is, the better you are.
But when we reach the elite of the game, where everyone runs fast and everyone is freakishly athletic, football IQ is heightened to an unreal level. Knowledge of the game, understanding the nuances, knowing the answers ― all before the ball snaps at the line of scrimmage.
Translation: The more reps, the more you know before making the pick.
I can't imagine why any NFL owner, now spending more than $300 million annually in salary cap revenue, would trust his franchise to a quarterback who has played one college season. It's blind faith on steroids.
This isn't learning on the job, or sitting behind a cagey veteran. You're drafted, and we're paying you millions ― and you're playing Week 1.
The enormity of the moment crushes some, overwhelms others. Typically, it impacts every quarterback.
It's rare that a rookie quarterback steps into the breach and starts making plays all over the field. Rare that he's so good, teams win because of him — not with him.
It takes two or three years (or more) for these guys to feel completely comfortable when they walk to the line of scrimmage. When they can look at grown men on the other side of the ball — whose coaches (the best in the sport, no less) spend an entire offseason scouting the player and the offense — and feel completely at ease.
When they can consistently win games at the highest level of football, and give their team — one that plays in a league designed for parity — an advantage more than the other guy.
Now we're ready to bet all that on a guy with 15 career college starts, and a throwing session?
The entire NFL scouting world has gone mad.
Matt Hayesis the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at@MattHayesCFB.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Ty Simpson is now a projected NFL first round pick, but why?